mood: low level anxiety.
state i'm in: feeling well finally, so ready to hit some sciencey stuff.
tune: faith evans "mesmerized" (freemasons vocal mix).
so, finally, it's on.
a couple of months ago i outlined what i believed would be the issues facing the electorate that could decide votes. let me revisit those issues.
http://outra-vez.blogspot.com/2007/07/hot-seat.html
1. national securityi believe that on election day more people will still believe that the coalition is better capable of handling this issue, by way of the fact that it represents a tougher more paternalistic approach. recall, people's perspectives rarely align with policy history, and are based more on emotion and impression. the last 12 to 24 months have nevertheless seen a steady erosion of the strength of this impression given by the coalition - AWB kickbacks, the continuing disaster in iraq, an increasingly disastrous front in afghanistan (including the death of an australian soldier), announcement of the withdrawal of british soldiers from these theatres, the mohammed haneef fiasco, the erosion of rights afforded to human life in australia (witnessed just yesterday by the illegal deportation of a new zealand citizen), a contradictory policy on human life, dependent on whether it is australian or non-australian of origin, the cornelia rau fiasco, the list goes steadily on...
the government has looked mean and cruel and willing to go to another country to kill for the reasons of great dubiety. the ALP has steered clear of threats to its image in this area, and has thus far managed to avoid looking weak, albeit unable to really provide much of an alternative vision in many areas. this is one area where a government led by kevin rudd will have to make some quick legwork in order to not look weak. i think they will.
2. the economy"australians have never been better off" has been prime minister john howard's catchphrase these last years with reference to our booming economy. i think this perennial card-up-the-sleeve of mr howards has been successfully neutralised by mr rudd as he goes around exploiting that many people (the iconic 'working families') are in fact not doing so well, and are suffering from the squeeze of too much credit given at too cheap a price. even if only a small margin of people are genuinely 'up shit creek', with enough exposure the wider community will begin to worry that it could happen to them.
i also think that the electorate has wisened up a little over the last few years, possibly engaged due to rising interest rates and living expenses, and is now more aware that our economic prosperity is in very little way the result of coalition policies, but linked to economic reforms undertaken throughout the 1980s coupled with the ubiquitous resources boom. in fact, the whole world is booming - the only countries that can right now be said to be in recession are rwanda and zimbabwe. once again, mr rudd has used the fact that no such boom lasts forever to engage the electorate and get them a little worried, and eager to hear about policies of a more long term nature. the more you get, the more you worry about keeping about it, and mr rudd has been ready to exploit the ever-paranoid australian people.
the fact that young people are becoming less likely to ever afford their own home, and that the government has been seen to have done nothing to rectify this, has done them no favours with younger voters, who are now appear to be flocking to the ALP
3. industrial relationstwo words: 'work choices'. a no-brainer of wide-brown-land-esque proportions. more than any other issue, this has polarised the electorate, and has painted the government with a dark mean streak like no other. this will cost the government more votes than any other single issue. and so it should i believe - a government's workforce should not be made more mobile by purely making them easier to fire. a balance of fluidity with education and training (where the government has failed colossally) must be reached.
4. who are you really voting for?most of the big events on this front have already been played out, prematurely. nevertheless, that have had the effect of giving the electorate the impression that a coalition vote is a vote for peter costello in the longer term, an impression which is now not likely to be rescindable. i don't actually believe mr costello would ever lead the government, even if the coalition is re-elected, yet i am sure he will lead the opposition if the government finds itself there on november 25th, before he is chewed up and spat out as a footnote to liberal party leadership history. as far as the wider community is concerned, they will not digest the idea of a prime minister costello easily, although i must admit there are elements of mr costello's political character that i am disposed towards.
a vote for the ALP is a vote for mr rudd.
5. APECit's been and gone, and served to cement the impression in people's minds that mr rudd is leading the country and setting the national agenda from oppostion. he upstaged the government on several fronts, in particular when addressing chinese president hu jintao in mandarin, including very chinese 'family jokes'.
above all else however, the lasting memory of APEC will be when members of the cast of the ABC's 'the chaser's war on everything' easily gained access to the 'red zone'. i found this to be the height of hilarity, and entirely legitimate given these individuals were on what amounted to a journalistic pursuit to expose perceived weaknesses in the security of a gathering of many of the world's most important leaders.
so that's my summary to date.
i found myself having a casual chat to mr rudd back in 2005 and at the time expressed my enthusiasm for any leadership aspirations he might have, and pledged that i would be likely to support him in such an an instance that he be running for prime minister. at this point my vote will probably go to the ALP, but there are several issues where a policy that i believe is completely ill-founded, and is not likely to be just a diversion in order to avoid direct confrontation with the coalition over a wedge issue, could send my vote in another direction (although not the coalition's). so let the money talk and bullshit walk - this is going to get annoying fast!
---
image: ALP