the hot seat

mood: happy.
state i'm in: weekend is here!
tune: etta james "at last".


a couple of months ago i began to again have doubts about the possibility of the current federal government being removed from power at the next election.

it was clear that the ALP was not making sufficient inroads into the undermining of john howard's economic credentials, and further, kevin rudd was not being perceived as a leader as strong as mr howard. given the current economic position of the nation, coupled with the inherent apathy of much of the australian population, i was quite sure that the upcoming election would be another victory for the coalition, especially after the governments interjection with the running of aboriginal communities in NT. now i am not so sure however.

the vast majority of my thoughts are framed by 5 points that i believe will determine the upcoming election. for some of these points, many voters have already made up their mind about who is best fit to deliver the goods and meet their expectations of what is in the best interests of themselves and the country. they are:


1. national security:

this is the number one issue for most people, whether they realise it or not. if there is a war, a terrorist attack, or a potential influx of hordes of 'others', they will clam up tight and a change of government is almost an impossibility. a wartime prime minister is almost universally seen my the majority as tough on potential threats, and a strong leader in a time of need. for the past half a decade, we have been at war, and this has suited the incumbents. now there is a real chance that the 'stay the course until the iraqis are fit to govern themselves' approach that has been espoused by the government will suddenly expire before they are indeed fit to govern themselves, as the US withdraws it's troops. it is unlikely that this will happen before april 2008, but all the talk of it is doing mr howard no favours whatsoever in his bid to remain the natural leader in a time of war. when british prime minister gordon brown stamps his name on a policy on the UK's commitment to iraq, things may get a lot worse again. the ALP is committed to an exit strategy to take effect in 2008, although details are still scarce on the ground.

the recent developments with dr mohammed haneef have also cast a long shadow over the government's ability to competently handle a security emergency. dr haneef has been tossed around the australian political sphere, between courts, law enforcement agencies, and government departments, like a slain lizard between a bunch of kookaburras. not a good look. it now seems quite likely that attorney general philip ruddock may withdraw the criminal justice certificate he issued last week, thereby rendering dr haneef liable to be deported immediately to india, jettisoning the possibly guilty, possibly innocent doctor, and with him sizable political fallout. this has been a mess of a case from the outset, and the ALP ought to seize upon the incompetence of the howard government as evidence of its inability to maintain the nation's security.


2. the economy:

this is the perennial 'card up the sleeve' for mr howard. however, it is now difficult for the government to insist that "australians have never been better off". i have been watching the global credit bubble approach bursting point in the last few months: two of the world's three largest financial analysis companies are downgrading credit ratings on more than US$17 billion worth of bonds backed by subprime mortgages (basically, those not through a major bank or financial institution) after they underestimated the level of defaults. this follows on from data released a few months ago showing that over 60% of subprime mortgagees are behind in payments. i concede that this is US data, and subprime mortgages make up a smaller proportion of the total here, however our own housing sector is suffering from many of the same ills, and considerable, albeit somewhat more modest, impact will be felt.

on the local front, housing affordability has never been lower, and households have never had to part with such a large proportion of their income in order to meet housing debt. inflation is in the upper reaches of reserve bank targets. the price of fresh fruit and vegetables, and, in particular, oil, has further stretched the australian household's finances. a study released last week by a victorian health department / university of melbourne collaboration found that more than 6% of victorians regularly run out of food and are not possessed of the financial means to purchase more. statistics and trends aside, a woman i saw on the news last week being interviewed in a shopping centre car park took the liberty to sum up public sentiment: "they're struggling to keep their homes," she said, "let alone put food on the table. it's like the late 80s!" a little dramatic perhaps (hey, it was the prime time news), but her reference to the late 80s implies comparisons to the last time australian's really felt the pinch on their hip pockets.

as for interest rates, i am still not sure if joe average understands how little impact any current government's actions can have on current interest rates. i believe moreso than before the last election, however he has a tendency to become very malleable to paranoia-invoking rhetoric from fear-mongering politicians in top gear of an election campaign. if they rise again before the next election, unlikely but possible as it is, mr howard may become just that much more uncomfortable


3. industrial relations:

i think most people have already made up their mind on how important this issue is, and in what political camp they sit. however, it may yet prove to be a late decision-polarising issue for many swinging voters.

i think labor has the upper hand on this issue as far as popular policy, although concerns still exist.


4. who are you really voting for?

closer to the election, i am sure the ALP had planned to bring out one of their ace cards, that being, who will really lead the country if a coalition victory eventuates. they were given a gift with the release of a biography on the prime minister, in which treasurer and widely anointed successor peter costello was quoted as expressing his cold regard for mr howard in the wake of the 'handover of leadership' debacle, and set about degrading the PM's economic credentials from the days of yore. the rivalry between the two is nothing new, but this was a particularly acrid chapter in the affair.

mr howard is rather unpopular with voters at the moment, however mr costello is even more unpopular. it will be of favour to the ALP if it appears that mr costello will succeed mr howard for the prime ministership.

in truth, in the event of a coalition victory, i am not certain whether mr costello would become the next leader of the coalition or not. on the one hand, mr howard may choose to make the symbolic gesture of continuing in his position until a week or so out from taking the record from his hero sir robert menzies, before making a timed departure, or may even choose to surpass sir menzies' record in the interest of his own narcissism. on the other hand, mr howard may choose to retire, but would likely be succeeded by someone from his own NSW right faction. tony abbot was a longtime favourite, however their relationship has turned somewhat frosty in recent years, so i am not so sure who it might be. what i am aware of, however, is the stacking of the liberal side of the parliament and the party itself, especially in NSW, with right-leading members, possibly in order to prevent a bid by mr costello bearing fruit. it alll appears quite messy.

either way, with his 68th birthday celebrated yesterday, it seems like mr howard has lost the interest of the australian people. he has become increasingly viewed as a man from another era, a proponent of out of date policies, and has been at times lately seen to be quite confused and making errors that would have been completely out of character in years gone by. i believe climate change is perhaps most important to the election from the perspective that the issue will illuminate mr howard as out of touch with what is important to the future of the nation and world, and not particularly important as an issue in its own right.


5. APEC:

this might just be the ultimate ace card for either the coalition or the ALP... or amount to virtually nothing. the 19th leader's meeting of APEC will be held in sydney, and only weeks out from an election, making its timing of immense importance.

mr howard purports that this meeting could be a chance for many of the world's heaviest polluters (read china, USA, mexico, russia and japan, as well as canada and australia, two of the highest per capita) to come together and take initiative to turn the tide on global warming. however, any suggestions of such at this stage are largely sophistry and aimed at appearing as strong on leadership for the domestic political debate, as this will not be the meetings primary aim, nor is any agreement likely to have long-lasting implications.

on the flip-side, this will be an occasion when mr howard will be seen to be rubbing shoulders and canoodling with george bush. i believe this would be a liability for mr howard, although i doubt whether he would be able to suppress the urge to bask in the glory of being in the ear of the world's most powerful leader. bringing this deliberation back the first point made, will impressions of mr howard's antics with mr bush be viewed positively by the electorate? to be honest, i am not sure. i am sure many will protest in the interests of those in iraq, afghanistan, and war zones to come, however i am also sure that just as many australians are contemporaneously disinterested with the plight of such folks.



the aforementioned notwithstanding, the biggest issue may well be whether apathy and paranoia win again in 2007? i hope not, and i'd like that this might be an election in which the public becomes engaged in the interest of themselves and their greater world. just have to wait and see.

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images: public domain

the house that 'love' built

mood: tired.
state i'm in: a little excited.
tune: kristine blond "love shy" (tuff jam's classic vocal mix).


i have a 'that's-the-way-life-is' gripe...


there once was a house on kinross street, spring hill, a house i used to live in.

i'd like to give a quick run-down on the 'where-are-they-nows' of the four people who used to live in this house...


one of us is now an architect, a pretty talented one i think, living and working in melbourne.

one of us is now a hairdresser, a pretty good one last i knew, even if he is a bit of a half-wit, living in sydney.

one of us is a science graduate with fairly bright aspirations of being a medical doctor in the not-too-distant future (although that last exam looks to be challenging such hopes).

the fourth member is here...



yes, that's right, big brother 2007's susannah murray, the feature girl of last week's 'zoo weekly' magazine, as well as appearing on advertisements for macleans toothpaste ("are your macleans showing!"). after her appearance on big brother 2007, and in spite of any glimmer of promise for her future for as long as i knew her, she is now the famous and lauded one of the four. at least, looking like that, she can't possibly claim to have any dignity or self-respect.

i promise i am not bitter, hehe, just needed to whinge about it.

a "barbecue stopper"

mood: a little anxious, not sure why.
state i'm in: just starting to come to the 'back-to-school' realisation, a week late.
tune: rae & christian "a distant invitation"


for the first time today, the potent issue of addressing housing affordability has been floated in an academic way by anyone other than an academic (usually from some melburnian think tank). kevin rudd placed the issue on the political table by announcing the ALP would hold a national housing affordability summit this month.

so far, the ideas have ranged from introducing mandatory, low-interest savings accounts, in the style of superannuation, only able to be accessed when one buys a home, to the involvement in the government or banks in shared equity agreements, or NGOs (in particular, our cash-flooded superannuation funds) investing in affordable social housing.

the reply of john howard was that it is the state governments that are to blame for the problem, accusing them of "holding back land" when they ought to be releasing more onto the market.

with my rudimentary knowledge of economics, mr howard appears to be running far closer to the mark with his idea of increasing supply, leading to a drop in price. i think this issue falls down in australia primarily on the issue of the environment. now i am not even talking about the loss of habitat for our cuddly koalas, but a more influential concern that the water infrastructure of almost every urban australian area is severely strained. in an argument not for here, i cannot stress enough just how unsustainable the 'great australian dream', with it's row after row of cookie cutter lots stretching into the horizon, really is. in the end, the dream of our aging generations will likely become the nightmare of the generations still to age.

mr rudd's first suggestion fails badly in my opinion. to quarantine funds into an account with the express purpose of buying a house is not only highly interventionist in an area that warrants no such intervention, but simply pours more money into the housing market. prices will simply rise to absorb the new available funds, like a fire consuming dry grass.

shared equity schemes aren't a bad idea, but run a great deal of risk for silent parties, be they banks, the government, or the lender's parents, and do not get to the issue of affordability itself.

it seems like the most obvious option, and the only one not discussed, is to reduce demand, thereby letting the balloon down slowly. how to reduce demand in such a market? reduce the purchasing ability of consumers. reducing wages is not exactly an option, so that leaves nothing other than increasing interest rates. they simply must go up in order to stave off a burst of the balloon at a later date, and prevent people getting themselves in more and more debt, with both houses and personal loans and credit cards. it's not an attractive option, and certainly not something for a political party to build its election platform on. (fortunately however, the reserve bank is independent from government influence, so can do as it sees fit.)

in response to this, a healthy welfare system is necessary to catch those that fall from the ladder as it wobbles. more importantly though, is there needs to exist a trend that people move into more affordable housing arrangements, denser housing, reliant more on sound design than "the australian ugliness" (i.e. cheap veneers and tack-ons) to maintain a healthy optimism about ones living conditions, and avoid the development of ghettos. it has been suggested by many academics, and today alluded to my mr rudd that many such developments could be subsidised by NGOs, in particular superannuation funds, in order to keep the rent or purchase price low.

australia's housing expectations are long overdue for a fall from grace.

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image: public